Stuck in the Stone Age (and Kind of Glad About It)

As I mentioned recently on LinkedIn, I feel like I’ve been left behind by the shiny, speculative rocket ship that is today’s market. Not in a nostalgic, “things used to be better” way. More like I’m Fred Flintstone staring slack-jawed at the Jetsons as they YOLO their way into parabolic charts and podcasts quoting Bitcoin like it’s holy scripture.

I’m not sure when investing became performance art, but here we are.

Let’s start with the basics: I still don’t buy the Magnificent Seven or the mega-cap tech darlings. Why? Because I know I have no competitive edge in valuing them. I can’t pretend to know what Apple’s “services” revenue will be in 2029, or how many AIs Nvidia will sell to other AIs pretending to be people. And if I have no edge, I stay away. That’s not humility. That’s discipline—and maybe a bit of self-preservation.

Shame on me? Maybe. But I sleep at night.

As I wrote in my last Substack post, I’m 95% in T-bills. Yeah, T-bills. The investment equivalent of watching paint dry. And yes, I look dumber than a cardboard cutout at a Taylor Swift concert since that post, because the S&P keeps melting up like it’s afraid of missing out on its own party.

And yet, year-to-date, my account’s return is disturbingly close to the index. Less volatility. No drama. No margin calls. Just pure, uncut boredom. I’m okay with that. I like boring. Boring doesn’t blow up.

Now, Bitcoin. Oh boy.

Every time I think I’ve heard it all, someone says, “Bitcoin is the least uncertain asset,” or “The U.S. needs Bitcoin more than Bitcoin needs the U.S.” And I’m left wondering if I’m on the wrong planet—or just the last one with a functioning frontal cortex.

Michael Saylor posts on X daily like it’s a religious rite. His followers? They’ve metaphorically (and maybe literally?) sold their kidneys and pancreas for more satoshis. I listened to hours of Bitcoin podcasts this week. I tried. I really did. But after the third time someone said “digital gold will replace central banks,” I had to step away before I threw my laptop into the ocean.

Now we’re talking about putting Bitcoin in 401(k)s? That’s not a red flag. That’s a red tsunami. When people start “investing” in volatile, unregulated assets with retirement money, you know the bubble is either inflating too fast or about to pop.

Look, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe this is the future and I’m the cranky guy yelling at digital clouds. But here’s a simple exercise: ask yourself, Could I stomach a 50% drawdown in my portfolio? If the answer is no—and you’re still chasing the latest momentum name or digital narrative—you might want to rethink your exposure.

Is this a bubble? We’ll only know in hindsight. But I can’t shake the feeling that I’m watching a slow-motion train wreck—a kind of 21st-century tulip mania, only now it comes with laser eyes, Discord servers, and price targets pulled from astrology charts.

Be careful out there. Keep your wits about you. And remember: the best pitches are the fat ones you can hit out of the park—not the ones Twitter told you were urgent.